Why do we believe in fortune-telling
Since last June, I have been determined to prepare for the GMAT, and now it has been eight months, with another half a month to go before the first test. This morning I received two pieces of news. The first one said that GMAT will definitely be reformed, SC will be removed, IR will be emphasized, and answers can be changed during the exam. This reform is equivalent to shaking the foundation of GMAT. If lucky, it's best to take the test as soon as possible, if unlucky, it's like having to relearn some subjects. The second news said that McKinsey is laying off 2000 people. Think about it, what kind of people does McKinsey recruit? These people are different from those at Alibaba, Google, Amazon, and they have also been laid off. After graduation, whether one can still enter McKinsey is already a big question.
The feeling that these two pieces of news give me is that something that has been prepared for or planned for almost a year may change in an instant. The costs incurred previously may become ineffective, resulting in huge waste. So a natural thought is to hope to know how to avoid such things, to prevent or reduce future losses. If I knew that even after completing an MBA I couldn't get into MBB, then I definitely wouldn't pursue it, because other industries cannot completely recover the cost of education. My career planning would also be different from what it is now.
So how can we know what will happen in the future? Either you have enough information, or you can make a judgment based on patterns. For the former, if I were a senior executive at GMAC or McKinsey, of course, I would know what I would do in the future, but for ordinary people, this information is not available. For the latter, there are still two ways. One is to analyze and infer based on the information currently available and collectible. This takes time and is prone to errors. The second way is fortune-telling.
Among the options mentioned above, fortune-telling is the easiest. It's absurd, may lack logic, and seem ridiculous. However, the accuracy of fortune-telling may not be lower than one's meticulous analysis. It's like blindly guessing an answer, with a 25% chance of getting it right. Whereas, pondering for a long time may lead to choosing the wrong option with a higher probability.
Should we rely on fortune-telling then? I think even if it's not inaccurate, we still shouldn't. First, consider a question, why didn't we ever think about fortune-telling when we were studying? Because at that time, the future was certain, from this year to next year, after finishing high school, it's time for college. There wouldn't be major changes like GMAT or layoffs, so there was no need to predict. After entering society, this certainty disappears. So here, remind yourself that the uncertainty you face is normal, and there are very reasonable reasons behind every uncertain event. There is no fate, everything is a matter of mathematical probability, everything is objective. So faced with these uncertainties, it's even more important to exert your own subjectivity, in short, do what you want to do. Just like GMAT and McKinsey, at least until I received the information, preparing for the GMAT was what I wanted to do, and that's enough. So don't let the results of fortune-telling stop you from doing what you want to do.
Furthermore, analyzing the future yourself may have a low success rate at times, but in most cases, it is more accurate than fortune-telling. An important reason is that you can exert your subjectivity to steer things towards a higher success rate, you are essentially changing the answers, which is defying fate.
In conclusion:
- The more unstable the future, the more urgent it is to act. Don't be lazy, don't waste time. Differentiate between priorities. Get results early before the environment changes, and make adjustments early after the environment changes.
- Think more, analyze, summarize, and take action quickly.
- Ensure good health.
- Do things that will never be wrong or outdated. Such as exercising, saving money, learning English, and so on.